No more RIM predictions

Take a deep breath and repeat after me: “no more predictions about RIM’s share price performance.” In the hours leading up to the launch of the Apple iPhone, RIM puts out the following quarterly numbers:

Revenue: US$1.08 billion
EPS: US$1.17
New adds: 1.2 million subscribers

This compares to GMP’s forecast of:

Revenue: US$1.058
EPS: US$1.13
New adds: 1.25 million net subscribers

Although GMP Securities research analyst Ray Sharma had the upper end of the forecasts, according to Thomson Financial, RIM didn’t actually blow the average revenue forecast of US$1.05B out of the water. But the US$1.05 average eps guess was certainly wrong.

And, as Westwind’s ace institutional salesman Ross McMaster would advise, it’s all about the guidance. And with the company signalling US$1.3-$1.365 billion in revenue for the next quarter, the stock rallied 10% after hours in the wake of the quarterly release.

Despite what some of us worrywarts had to say about “headline risk”, the only headline risk occured this evening when the hedge funds that were short RIM going into the iPhone launch had to cover their positions tonight — at any price.

And whatever it’ll cost Jimmy to buy a NHL hockey team, he can now afford to buy the Leafs after tonights’ run. Why fool around with moving a team to Hamilton? It’s the Leafs that his heart must yearn for.

Just offer the Teachers $200 million more than the Leafs are worth. They’d be forced to take it; and more than the two hundo in question was made between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. this evening.

But, as I promised, no more RIM predictions.

MRM