Top mistakes of the year
Mistakes aren’t just the domain of the mainstream media. Leading up to December 31st, I think this space should review our “Top Mistakes of the Year”. You’ll quickly realize that we know better than to think we are always right in our calls and perspectives. This is just another reason why everything you read here needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
To kick things off, how about the call (wrong) I made on Coventree (COF:TSX) at $1/share (see prior posts “Only 99 cents to go” September 20-07 and “Coventree shares defy logic” February 7-08)? Here I thought they’d be out of business with the end of the ABCP market. How wrong I was, as the company’s shares have risen from just under a buck to $3.26 over the past twelve months!
During the same timeframe, the TSX is down 33.4%. To think that Coventree is one of the best performing stocks in Canada this year, despite advising again on August 1st that:
“it is expected that the Company will seek an orderly wind down of its operations and, in conjunction therewith, the distribution to shareholders of remaining funds after setting aside appropriate amounts to cover the Company’s expected future costs and liabilities, including known contingent and other related liabilities.”
MRM
Mark, I’m having difficulty finding the “Top mistakes of the year” entry on O’Leary’s fund site. Can you give me a hand?
I think the sort of investor who made good on Coventree is likley the same investor who was hurt by a dozen other true falling knives.
Thanks Brad
Since the OGE IPO, the fund’s NAV is down 33.7% as of Thursday’s close. The Dow Jones is down 33.6% during the same timeframe.
Uncanny performance in a difficult market. Let’s give the guy credit.
MRM
On the topic of top mistakes of the year: My 20/200/2000 prediction (wheat/oil/gold) looks to fall way short by year end. August 2009 anyone?
Damn those hedge funds!
However, gold is making unusual movement north the last three trading days. And, along with whispers of Middle East, Russian, and Chinese USD reserves being quietly substituted for actual bullion of the shiney yellow stuff, the $2000 may be a pleasant Christmas gift for some.
Furthermore, rumours of an imploding COMEX in December certainly are “putting out fires with gas-oh-line” as sung by Mr. Bowie.
If so, then $1000 by the first week of December should be a shoe-in, and 2000 sometime soon.
Wouldn’t it be something if one ounce of gold was valued at more than the Dow? It could happen in 2009. But then again, so could anything…crazy stuff indeed.