GMP sees triple in Softchoice Corp.
This GMP Securities research note caught my eye. A tech company with the chance for a triple? That’s Softchoice (SO:TSX):
Softchoice Corp. BUY
SO-TSX
C$3.85 Target: C$9.50Building for 2010 – Initiating Coverage with Buy Rating
. IT Spending to Rebound: Our discussions with IT professionals and published reports suggest IT spending may have bottomed and should gradually recover through 2010. As a software reseller, Softchoice should see increased business.
. Microsoft Upgrade Cycle Near: The next upgrade to Windows is expected to be released in October and should stimulate business in 2010. Microsoft represents about 33% of Softchoice revenue and more than 50% of gross margin.
. Cost Structure: SO acquired three businesses in late 2007, 2008. Following cost cutting in the past six months, we believe Softchoice has a more appropriate cost structure.
. Forecasts above Street: Our forecasts of EPS US$0.35 in 2009, $0.75 in 2010 are generally above Street views.
. Risk: Trends in cloud computing and new web-based programs like Salesforce.com represent a potential risk of disintermediation for resellers.
. Target of C$9.50 based on 11x 2010 EPS of US$0.75 and C$ at US$0.85. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating.
MRM
Gutsy call – industry data says many SMEs will upgrade to Windows 7, but not in the near term.
Meanwhile, what SME is buying boxed software upgrades in this environment? Not many.
Company lost $0.14 in just one quarter. Can you really turn it around that rapidly in this environment?
They do need to raise equity likely ($40m in debt and cash flow negative), so it makes sense to try to pump it – GMP could use the CF money.