Oh, to be John Tory

You think you’re having a tough day? Just be grateful that you’re not John Tory.

It has been more than six months since Mr. Tory let Toronto voters know that he wouldn’t be throwing his hat into the Toronto Mayoral campaign ring. And yet, despite his professed desire to spend his time differently, there seems to be a new and urgent push on to get him to change his mind.

In part, it’s the media’s own fault, who seem inexplicably underwhelmed by the current roster of candidates. You’d think five candidates from across the political spectrum would be suffiicient to call it a horserace. As for ideas, most of the candidates seem to have plenty of them to go around. Not that the Mayoral candidate’s platform is anything other than a chance for voters to see what the new Mayor would do if he/she had the power to do it; which our system doesn’t deliver in any event.

Mr. Tory’s fantastic appeal is and always was definitely clear, but to jump into the race now is so complicated that this alone may seal the deal. The lion’s share of his best organizers are working elsewhere, given the firmness of Mr. Tory’s original announcement in January. Some natural supporters are already leaking emails, as the Globe reported this morning, in an effort to scare Mr. Tory off.

As much as the media said “oh shit, what have we done?” when Mr. Tory decided not to run last January, I’m not so sure they’ll come through with make-up sex should he now change his mind.

Is your heart totally in it? they’ll ask.

What changed? they ask.

Are you just running because of the great polling data? they’ll ask.

Is it true that your wife didn’t want you to do it in January, and has now changed her mind? they’ll ask.

How does it feel that some of your best allies have decided to stay supporting other candidates? they’ll ask.

What about your commitment to the City Summit Alliance? they’ll ask.

Let’s not confuse the media’s recent encouragement / apparent desire to inject some new sizzle into the race to be a guarantee of support should Mr. Tory make the leap. The Toronto Star already has a candidate in George Smitherman, and a back-up in Rocco Rossi. The Sun and Post have every reason to support Rob Ford’s message, and the Globe isn’t going to make or break Mr. Tory’s chances if they decided to get behind him.

Numbers-wise, it is hard to see how the odds of winning have changed between January and July. Mr. Tory stood an excellent chance in January, and leaked polling suggests he’d be the frontrunner if he was to make the decision to be on the ballot this fall. As such, he has a great chance to win, and there’s some chance he may not.

I’m in the camp of: careful what you wish for.

Unlike Ottawa or Queen’s Park, two environments that Mr. Tory is also familiar with, leadership at Toronto City Hall comes with few tools to actually get something done. For people, like Mr. Tory, who are interested in the political levers of power for the right reasons — that is frustrating indeed. The absence of political parties at City Hall means that every Councillor is the leader of their own political party, with a vote of equal weight to the Mayor.

The Mayor may get more ink, and have more resources, but he/she still needs 23 votes to improve the lives of Torontonians. Mr. Tory’s particular brand of politics has broad appeal, which is why he has friends in every corner of the political universe. But that doesn’t immediately translate into votes on subways versus more LRT routes, or vice-versa.

I’ve known Mr. Tory for more than 20 years. He is a wonderful and talented person. The kind of person we need in politics. Just as our country needed Dalton Camp or Hal Jackman or Hugh Segal or Don Matthews in elected office, but rejected all four when the ballot came. Unlike the U.S., Canada’s brand of urban politics is tough, if not unfair, when it comes to high profile names with independent resources.

Of course the race is calling for him, but the wisdom of Mr. Tory’s January decision shouldn’t now be second-guessed, as tantalizingly close as the Mayor’s chair may be.

If the new Mayor doesn’t come up to snuff, the next campaign will be a cakewalk if the role still seems appealing. If the new Mayor does a good job, Mr. Tory will still have much to be proud of.

MRM
(this blog, like all posts, is a personal view and in no way represents the views of the TPA, its Board/Staff, or the Federal Government)